Fluctuations in the global shrimp market: US tariffs create pressure, prices clearly differentiate

The global shrimp market is undergoing a period of major volatility, in which U.S. tariff policies are the dominant factor, creating significant pressure on exporters and causing clear price divergence across key markets such as the United States, China, and India.

U.S. market: Prices rise sharply due to tariffs and limited supply

According to Gary Morrison, a U.S.-based market analyst, wholesale shrimp prices in the United States have increased significantly. The main reason is the additional tariff rates, especially the 50 percent tariff imposed on Indian shrimp, which has pushed import costs sharply higher.

Initially, the impact of tariffs was not immediately visible because importers still held large volumes of low-cost inventory. However, once this inventory was depleted, actual costs were fully reflected in wholesale prices.

A notable development is that Latin American shrimp producers (primarily Ecuador), who were expected to gain a price advantage, did not reduce their selling prices. Instead, as they were already running at full capacity and saw strong demand, they raised their offer prices to match the tariff-inclusive prices of Asian competitors. This means U.S. buyers effectively no longer have a cheaper alternative.

In addition, supply for value-added products such as easy-peel shrimp (mainly from Asia) has tightened due to other constraints, including FDA regulations affecting shipments from Indonesia, further accelerating price increases.

With the 50 percent import tariff on Indian shrimp, wholesale prices for Pacific white shrimp in the U.S. have risen to 6.25 USD per pound, a 21 percent increase compared with April, according to Shaji Baby John, Chairman and CEO of Kings Infra, one of India’s major seafood exporters.

According to John, this price surge has directly affected restaurants and consumers, forcing chains such as Red Lobster to revise their “Endless Shrimp” promotion into a more economical version, now serving only three shrimp items for 15.99 USD.

Despite these adjustments, shrimp consumption in U.S. restaurants has fallen by 7 percent over the past year, reflecting the market’s gradual adaptation to the new price levels, John added.

Chinese market: Stable on the surface, underlying tensions rising

In contrast to the United States, Louis Harkell reports that China’s imported shrimp market has remained relatively stable in recent months. However, this stability masks “underlying tension” between Chinese importers and Ecuadorian packers.

Specifically, raw material costs in Ecuador are rising due to seasonal supply shortages, while consumer demand in China remains sluggish. This prevents Ecuadorian exporters from increasing prices, significantly narrowing their profit margins.

A new factor reshaping the market is the rapid expansion of China’s domestic shrimp production, particularly from high-tech greenhouse farms. Domestic output has surged, creating direct competition with imported shrimp. Notably, there have been times when live domestic shrimp were cheaper than imported frozen shrimp—an almost unprecedented situation. The recent Golden Week holiday temporarily boosted prices for live shrimp, but had no impact on imported-shrimp prices.

India: The direct “victim” of tariffs, struggling to find a way out

According to Dan Gibson, who recently returned from the India International Seafood Show, Indian exporters are being hit hardest by U.S. tariff policy. Pond-gate shrimp prices in India have dropped sharply following each tariff announcement from Washington.

India is heavily dependent on the U.S. market, which consumes about 40–50 percent of its total shrimp production, especially medium-sized peeled and deveined shrimp. This is a segment for which the United States cannot easily find alternative suppliers with similar volume, and India also lacks another market large enough to replace the U.S.

Indian exporters are attempting to delay shipments in hopes of a policy reversal, but this is difficult because shrimp are highly perishable and can only be stored for a maximum of about 30 days. Currently, shipments subject to the 50 percent tariff have already begun arriving at U.S. ports.

Facing these challenges, Indian companies are aggressively seeking new markets, with Europe seen as the most promising escape route. Exports to the EU have doubled this year as they work to overcome regulatory barriers to stabilize market access. However, experts emphasize that while a 25 percent tariff is “survivable,” a 50 percent tariff is unsustainable and will cause severe damage if not adjusted soon.

Translation from VIBO news. Author of Vietnamese article: according to (vasep.com.vn)